一家地产公司，怎么算NAV都好像低过股价，于是我在想，中国高速发展的地产业，用discount to NAV may under estimate the potential of these growing stocks. maybe PER is a better ratio to capture the short-medium term growth momentum as they can rolling forward so fast and run out landbank so quickly. if we focus on landbank, we may ignore the "ABILITY" of mgt to get cheap landbank.

 

i would adopt a new valuation methodology for property company.

 

1) for large property company: using PER and 3-yr CAGR growth as first metric and doubled checked with NAV discount (maybe premium, but make sure not a large premium, for this moment, 10-15% is an acceptable level)

special score should be given to company having good relation with government

 

 

2) for small to medium property company: first metric is still discount to NAV, i think 10% discount to NAV is acceptable. PER should serve to double check the target price.

 

I have not yet applying the above thinking into my sector report. my rational is based on the simply idea: if the while sector can grow by 25%+ 3-yr CAGR (some even can achieve 50%), 12X FY07E PER seems a true and fair multiple.  

building model is somehow like playing game. i am now transfering part of my frenzy on warcraft and aoe to building model. thats why i can stay up so late...谁要report发邮件给我啊，等我以后去了大行就没有这种咚咚了

just wonder how efficient they can be...