not a surprise. if we look at the 27bp solely, its really nothing to the capital market. liquidity is still there, sentiment is high. but i feel confused about the signal central bank sent. CPI is low, overcapacity is still there. even though we factor inflation pressure from service and energy sector, CPI ganna still be low ~2.5-3%. banks are struggling to improve the bank/deposit ratio to improve portfolio return, why do they still raise the reserve ratio and benchmark? i thought adminstrative policy will be a more efficient way to curb overinvestment in steel, cement and property sector. i doubt the effect of 27bp raise on the whole economy cycle. 

 

as always, mkt will react aversely to the news like what we witnessed in 04 and 05. while calling my clients to take some profit, i begin to look for re-entry point. Back to fundamental, our HSCEI is still not overly strenched. if mkt correct by 40% like last two time, it will be a gold buy opportunity.

 

KEEP AND WATCH, PUT YOUR MONEY INTO POCKET

for the first time, i know exactly what is policy risk. though i have been analyst for half an year, and for many times, i cited "policy risk" as risk of China stock call, i never really understand what the policy risk is. this week, market give me a lesson. of course, not free. charge me 10,000HKD.

 

fear and greedy, it is so hard to stick to fundamentals and hard to have strong belive on what i used to believe. if asked tmr on what ganna to do with the market, my answer will be "Accumulate on weakness". the more drop, the more buy.

 

FUCK analyst life

Things always have two sides

 

1 我今天想的最多的是做事情前要衡量risk，特别要考虑家人的影响，we are not living for ourself only.

 

2 Risk management is important, dont always assume the best scenario, make prudent provision. make sure if the worst happen, there is cushion.

 

3. Our POLICE are everywhere, you are watched anytime. including you are watching my blog here

 

i am a brave man with a innovative brain.

 

my boss said one thing "Criminal is not the action, but get caught".

 

Wait for me guys